Strait of Hormuz Crisis

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz held for 105 days before a ceasefire text produced the first firm commitment to physical reopening. Iran re-closed the strait on 21 June, and the Versailles framework moved from contested to structurally broken by 27 June following a confirmed ceasefire-violating drone attack and 80 uncleared mines recorded by the UN. A confirmed tanker strike and US kinetic response on 28 June marked the first active military exchange. By 14 July the US had reinstated a naval blockade of Iranian ports; by 18 July Iranian forces were firing missiles and drones at US targets in Gulf States. Brent crossed $100.38 on 24 July before retreating as China opened a Pakistan-Iran-US mediation channel. The Yemen truce collapsed on 27 July. By 18 August Iran had re-declared the strait closed citing Israeli violations. Through 30 August, crude continued to transit while Iran's re-closure declaration remained legally active and disputed by Washington, producing a divergence between physical flows and military-legal status that Brent at $88.10 had not priced. With no inventory cushion and the options market unhedged against a hard closure, any confirmed enforcement action retains non-linear upside risk toward $105 to $115.