Strait of Hormuz Crisis

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz held for 105 days before a ceasefire text produced the first firm commitment to physical reopening. The United States formally ended its blockade on 19 June, with Vice-President Vance confirming ship movement; tracker data on 20 June provided the first hard operational confirmation that the toll-regime MOU had moved from paper to practice. On 21 June, Iran re-closed the strait, invalidating the MOU narrative and resetting the crisis clock. On 22 June, Khamenei publicly resisted the deal terms, adding a leadership-veto risk. By 24 June, an organised evacuation of stranded vessels was under way and Secretary Rubio was in the UAE conducting emergency consultations. On 25 June, Brent fell to $72.58 as Iran's re-closure declaration remained disputed. On 27 June, Trump confirmed a ceasefire-violating Iranian drone attack and the UN recorded 80 uncleared mines in the strait, moving the Versailles framework from contested to structurally broken. Iran's demand linking any durable deal to Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, combined with active gunboat patrols and the unresolved Apache shootdown, keeps the framework fragile. With global inventories confirmed fully depleted as of 6 June, any sustained closure retains non-linear upside risk toward $105 to $115.