Strait of Hormuz Crisis

The Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted since US and Israeli strikes on Iran began on 28 February 2026. An April ceasefire, a June memorandum and an interim truce each failed to reopen it on acceptable terms. Iran's re-closure declaration, disputed by Washington, has been accompanied by record weekly tanker-attack counts now extending into open Gulf waters beyond the strait. Gulf crude exports hold near pre-war volumes through bypass routes, but the US blockade has cut Iranian crude exports to zero in October, removing the economic release valve from the closed diplomatic channel. With no credible broker remaining after the Russia intermediary channel collapsed, Iran's seven-condition stance entrenches the stalemate. One attack per day in open Gulf waters is the operational baseline. Trump's confirmed pre-midterm strike pause removes the primary kinetic constraint on Iran; Treasury's sanctions on 17 shadow-fleet tankers apply economic pressure without kinetic risk. Brent trades near $106.4, pricing total Iranian supply suppression rather than full physical closure. NthEffect tracks the cascade from crude and LNG through freight and insurance, fertiliser and refined products, and into the names most exposed to a loss of bypass capacity or a durable reopening.