Red Sea / Houthi Escalation

Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping began in November 2023 and paused with the Gaza ceasefire in late 2025, before returning in 2026. The Houthis escalated in solidarity with Iran in March, then, after Saudi strikes on Sanaa in July, declared a blockade on Saudi ports and ships. Consecutive strikes on Riyadh airport on 11 and 12 October killed at least 12 and injured hundreds, confirming mass-casualty targeting capacity against the Saudi capital. Saudi Arabia has responded with airstrikes on Houthi oil depots near Sanaa, marking a shift to offensive operations; Brent stands at $106.40. Ballistic missiles were intercepted over Saudi Arabia on 9 October, prompting Lufthansa and Air India to suspend Riyadh flights. Turkish defensive support for Saudi Arabia is confirmed. Yemeni government forces are advancing toward Bab el-Mandeb. Suez transits remain around 47% below the 2023 baseline. NthEffect tracks the cascade from Bab el-Mandeb transits through tanker and container freight, war-risk insurance, Suez revenues and Europe's import costs, and into the names exposed if the Yanbu bypass route is disrupted.