Ukraine War / Russia Sanctions

Year four of the Ukraine war. The acute phase has settled into a structural rearmament cycle across Europe and a long-tail repricing of LNG infrastructure. The Hormuz corridor has deteriorated beyond the contested MOU stage: Iran re-closed the strait on 21 June, drone attacks were confirmed by 27 June, and 80 mines remain uncleared, rendering the Versailles framework operationally dead. WTI at $69.23 continues to misprice a closure scenario materially. The Nord Stream 2 owner suing the EU over the gas ban confirms Europe's LNG infrastructure pivot is legally permanent. The US House sanctions legislation, codified in statute, hardens the rearmament and LNG infrastructure thesis by removing executive discretion. European defence names continue to rotate internally, with second-tier suppliers and Eastern European industrials now the alpha source as flagship primes are fully priced. The structural reorientation of European energy supply away from Russian gas is irreversible regardless of Hormuz resolution. NthEffect tracks the cascade from defence primes through European rearmament suppliers, into the LNG buildout, and onward into reconstruction names whose upside remains the least-owned and least-priced leg of the post-conflict trade.