Ukraine War / Russia Sanctions

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began on 24 February 2022. In its fifth year the conflict has settled into a cycle of strike campaigns and stop-start diplomacy. On 18 September Trump signed the Graham Act, permitting tariffs of up to 100% on the largest buyers of Russian energy and up to 500% on Russian goods, subject to waivers. The UK and EU reinforced that architecture on 9 October with coordinated sanctions targeting financial services and the shadow fleet. On 11 October a reported bilateral US-Russia diesel deal introduced ambiguity into the durability of the multilateral regime; by 13 October bipartisan congressional opposition had converted that legal risk into a live domestic constraint. Trump's public calls for Zelenskyy's replacement add a separate political pressure. Germany continues to hold to existing sanctions. The trilateral meeting remains scheduled for late October. NthEffect tracks the cascade from defence primes and second-tier suppliers through European energy and LNG, sanctions enforcement on Russian oil buyers, and the reconstruction names that move on any durable ceasefire.