Taiwan Blockade Scenario

A Taiwan quarantine or blockade is not active. Forecaster baseline probability sits around 3.7%, conditional on policy triggers in Beijing or Washington. NthEffect models the cascade ahead of time: a quarantine would gap semiconductor names tied to TSMC, lift defence primes, repress global trade-weighted growth, and force a re-rate of the chip equipment complex. The page tracks probability shifts and the names with the most asymmetric exposure if the trigger lands.