SPDR Gold Trust ETF

Physical gold via the largest gold ETF. Classic inflation hedge + geopolitical safe haven. Up 15% YTD. Central banks buying. Gold thrives in stagflation — but still early vs 1970s run.

Gold becomes the obvious hedge if a credit event materialises. Tech IG bond stress would re-rate gold quickly via flight-to-quality flows. Holds in every scenario except 'AI demand vindicates capex' (where it underperforms but doesn't crash).

Gold becomes obvious flight-to-quality if a Taiwan event triggers. The $10tn GDP-at-risk number translates directly into central bank reserve diversification accelerating. Already buying on Hormuz/AI Capex theses; Taiwan adds another structural floor.

Permanent geopolitical risk premium since 2022. Central bank gold buying (especially CBR/PBOC and Asian sovereigns) restructured demand. Sanctions weaponisation created a permanent structural reserve diversification trade. Different from AI Capex (credit hedge) and Taiwan (flight to quality) — this is the slow-burn central bank story.